On the basis of range talk and betting odds, it will presumably be a source of some relief to 155 of the 156 men at the US Open that a tournament has even been deemed necessary here in the suburbs of Pittsburgh.
If conventional wisdom was all that mattered, then plenty of time and money would be saved by signing over the trophy to Scottie Scheffler at the outset.
But thankfully golf is a fickle game and Oakmont Country Club is quite capable of burying form guides beneath five inches of dense rough.
And therein lies one of the fascinating subplots of this 125th edition of golf’s most sadistic major. By that, we mean Scheffler’s ability to withstand the really nasty stuff between Thursday morning and Sunday evening.
Across the past three years or so, there has been a rapid dwindling in the areas where we can legitimately scrutinise his talent and progress. His three major titles, Olympic gold medal and 16 other wins on the PGA Tour have made Scheffler the most dominant force since Tiger Woods in consideration of the speed and performance metrics with which they were acquired.
Amid such brilliance, there are precious few loose ends but this is one: can he do it when the setting is truly fiendish and as far removed from the usual target golf as we will ever see?
Scottie Scheffler has put together the most dominant run of form in the sport since Tiger Woods
The American has won three of his last four tournaments, with his most recent triumph coming at the Memorial Tournament at the start of this month
It is among the last questions at the bottom of a barrel he has emptied with his remarkable acquisition of trophies, including three in his past four starts.
By that reasoning, the coming five weeks are intriguing. That applies most glaringly to The Open next month and the quirks of links golf, where he is yet to master an idiosyncratic format of the game.
But it also applies here, purely for the fact he has not yet won a US Open and because this particular course is so viciously extreme. Similar to The Open, this major tests resilience to breaking point and its champions are celebrated accordingly.
None of which is to say Scheffler is a glorified flat-track bully – that nonsense would be dismissed instantly by his four wins across Bay Hill and Augusta.
But Oakmont, while less revered, approaches mythical status for its savagery and the wind has started to build. Taming such a place would be a huge feather in the cap.
At halfway to the career slam – Scheffler added the PGA Championship added last month to his two green jackets – we can assume he is rather comfortable with his astonishing rate of progress by the age of 28. But there is always interest in seeing how quickly a star can pass the mile markers.
By that standard, it is fun to wonder if his game and temperament can translate to a course where life can often feel unfair. Given his mind is even stronger than his play from tee to green, and indeed his putting, which in the past year ranks among the best on tour, the prognosis is good.
Now he just needs to tick the box, if ever a complicated task could be reduced to such basic terms.
Oakmont Country Club approaches mythical status for its savagery and the wind has started to build
‘This is probably the hardest golf course that we’ll play, maybe ever,’ Scheffler told us this week, and for one of the more understated personalities in the game, that was close to bombastic.
‘I kind of equate some of the major tests to the majors in tennis. You’re playing on a different surface – you’ve got grass, clay and then the hard court, and it’s a different style of game. The US Open compared to the Masters is a completely different type of test.’
For a measure of how Scheffler’s character differs to his closest theoretical rival here, consider the prose adapted by Bryson DeChambeau: ‘Oakmont wasn’t designed to be fair, it was designed to be feared.’
Having won this tournament for a second time last year, DeChambeau is the only man within a postcode of Scheffler in bookmaker eyes. His LIV form is also hot and he is still bristling from the way in which he was blown away by Rory McIlroy in the final round of the Masters.
Since then he has finished second at the PGA Championship, fixed a few issues with his wedge game via some typically wild equipment tweaks, and he has seen McIlroy fall into a post-Augusta lull. A McIlroy challenge would be a surprise unless his new driver prompts a dramatic upturn; a DeChambeau win would not be a shock.
Generally, this course throws up big-name winners – they include Jack Nicklaus and Ben Hogan historically and Dustin Johnson last time, in 2016.
But such is the premium on driving accuracy and putting on those rapid surfaces, Aaron Rai and Shane Lowry are the sorts of players who might threaten from a lower position of expectation.
Of more familiar challengers, Xander Schauffele’s recovery in health and form is also promising and Jon Rahm brought life to a dormant volcano at the PGA Championship. They could all go well.
Scheffler’s closest theoretical rival Bryson DeChambeau shared his view that Oakmont was ‘designed to be feared’
Rory McIlroy has fallen into a post-Augusta lull, meaning a challenge at the US Open would be a surprise
Scheffler has shot higher than 72 in only five of his past 139 rounds, compared to McIlroy’s 15 in 108 and DeChambeau’s 15 in 86
But it is one thing to navigate Oakmont and another to do it in fewer strokes than Scheffler.
Of all the data in his favour, it is interesting to note he has shot higher than 72 in only five of his past 139 rounds. Compare that to McIlroy (15 in 108) and DeChambeau (15 in 86) and a picture is drawn of a sportsman who has mastered the ability to avoid high numbers.
If he can do that across 72 holes here, it will rank among his finest achievements, which is no easy list to gatecrash.