The Wallabies own the longest win streak (four) in the top ten. Coaching does matter.

But first up in the Rugby Championship are the Springboks, who lately only lose to Ireland.

What might Australia head coach Joe Schmidt be focused on before the Bok arrive?

1. Get more go forward in the carry:

Whether against Wales or Georgia, the Wallabies only averaged three metres or so when running the ball. In contrast, the Boks and All Blacks topped five metres in their warm-up Tests.

Forty percent of All Black carries in San Diego broke a tackle (the Wallabies busted just 14 per cent of Georgian attempts). Almost ten per cent of South African and New Zealand carries ended in a line break; the Wallabies were below half that rate.

This prompted far more passing, to find space. (The Boks passed 155 times against Portugal in Bloemfontein to the Wallabies’ 229 throws in Sydney). However, not offloads; Schmidt has his team attempting the least of the Championship teams.

Whether we are looking at red zone efficiency or general attack shape, there is still no substitute for running gainline dominance. Up against a hammer-rush defense like South Africa’s stingy setup, an extra gainline metre is vital to create the out-the-back passing space from pod to second receiver to find an edge.

Rob Valetini is faultless in this regard. He has been high carrier yet again, taking on the hardest yards. Fraser McReight has poked holes in modest defences, but is not one to carry fifteen times into Bok traffic like tireless Reds teammate Harry Wilson, rangy lock Nick Frost, or ever present 43-cap Valetini (still only 25).

In the absence of a true Test monster inside centre, the Wallabies have relied on Tom Wright and wings (Filipo Daugunu) to carry the load on first phase or kick return. This is not as effective against smash tacklers like Pieter-Steph du Toit, Siya Kolisi, Bomb Squad brutes, or the always massive Eben Etzebeth.

Australia must get over the gainline first with forwards. Sean McMahon is only 30 and has 27 caps; he is a bit like Jack Dempsey who is tearing up trees in Scotland.

But there will be no additional import back home from Suntory or Scotland.

This may favour the Valetini-McReight-Wilson loose trio, but depending on whether Will Skelton joins the crew, Schmidt could also size up with a Lukhan Salakaia-Loto or Frost shifting to big six. The issue here is mobility in defence (see below).

Tom Hooper (22) and Langi Gleeson (23) have not seen much action and this may not be the best style of Test to throw them into, unless Schmidt’s long-term plans reign and a win now is not the only imperative. Schmidt’s track record is to win now.

2. Stick or move on:

Twenty Wallabies in the 2024 squad have fewer than 20 caps. With the Lions not that far in the horizon, if more tight forwards are going to be blooded and bedded in, the pecking order amongst locks Ryan Smith, Angus Blyth, Jeremy Williams (23), and Frost.

At 1.97 m, Williams is not as tall as lineout coach Geoff Parling might like against 203cm Etzebeth and 206cm RG Snyman. Blyth is Etzebeth-sized, even if he has a 100 or so cap deficit, but he has shown an early proclivity to leak penalties (the most pinged Wallaby versus Georgia). Given he is the top ruck hitter, this is a concern.

With Skelton in the mix, 16-cap Frost (still just 24) might be on the bench, but if he is the lock Schmidt needs (a la Devin Toner in Ireland) he needs to be picked and stuck with.

Only nine Wallabies have 30 or more caps. The 20-cap crowd is Andrew Kellaway (29 caps), who at 28 years of age already seems like a Schmidt stalwart, Hunter Paisami (27 caps), Wright (26 caps), Noah Lolesio (23 caps at age 24), 31-year-old Jake Gordon (22) and McReight (20).

The name which leaps out amongst that core group is Lolesio. He will turn 25 this December and has not yet taken a firm hold on the starting flyhalf position. His debut was against the All Blacks in 2020, capped at age 20 by Dave Rennie, having established himself at the Brumbies as a starter.

He was part of the heaviest defeat (5-43) in Sydney, scoring Australia’s only points. A week later, he sat the bench behind makeshift No.10 Reece Hodge, as the Wallabies gave Rennie his first win – a 24-22 upset with two high tackle red cards.

Lolesio had 26 minutes on the park and went on to have 18 more caps before the horror that was 2023, which saw him go to Toulon for a few months on a ‘joker deal.’

He had perhaps his tidiest season at the Brumbies this year, starting 15 matches, scoring his highest season total (150 points), and played his highest total minutes (1,064).

With Ben Donaldson continuing to seem like the almost man, and one-cap Tom Lynagh just barely 21, Schmidt must decide whether to just stick with Lolesio this year or continue auditions.

Blyth, Charlie Cale, Josh Flook, Isaac Kailea, Lynagh, Dylan Pietsch and Williams made debuts in Sydney. It is unlikely all of them will be in the Lions series picture.

Schmidt has surely circled a few of them, however, to stick with and trust to the end.

3. Starch up the defence:

Test coaches love scoring tries but hate it when they have to score three or more to win. Giving up 16, 28, and 29 points to weak opponents in succeeding weekends will furrow the Schmidt brow. Worse, the tries conceded went from 1 to 4 to 4.

In the shortened 2023 Rugby Championship, Australia conceded the most points (115) in three matches. In 2022 it was 194 points in six matches. Getting below 30 is goal one; a 50 point aggregate game is one the Wallabies have a shout in.

Part of the problem is shaky maul defence. Wales should have probably gone to their lineout drive more; Dewi Lake behind this dragon boat was too much to stop.

The new gold standard for stopping a maul involves two main doctrines: make the referee your extra defender by triggering the first and second stops to initiate “use it.”

The second is not to splinter or fracture the maul, but rather to freeze it, to bind it and to do that, the pincer pushes in on itself, with a focus of almost helping the maul cohere, to stop the appearance of movement, so the referee commands use.

The Wallabies were not good at either facet so far.

The other issue is side-to-side or trackback defence.

Against Georgia, Frost missed four tackles, as did Wright (who was also culpable with Darby Lancaster on a lazy chase), Donaldson missed three, and Kellaway, Lancaster, and Daugunu missed a couple each. Apart from Frost (who needs to improve his technique in general) his speaks more to system adherence than individual failings.

However, against the Boks, 13 missed tackles by backs would likely result in a try bonanza.

Finally, the old penalty and card issue reared its ugly head again, with 12 penalties against the Wallabies in the final Test and 13 in the 25-16 victory over Wales two weeks earlier in Sydney.

If there is one area Schmidt and his assistants will be furious about, it is this facet.

4. The scrum:

Even when South Africa is not playing well, as in 2016 and 2017, the scrum can be a weapon. The Boks are not bad now, and if you were to point to one strength which made them repeat world champs, it would be the scrum.

In Durban, early for the Test, I watched a full-on Bok scrum analysis, eight on eight, headed by bucket hatted Daan Human, with three assistants filming and measuring, and a physio helping him on kinetics, and new assistant Duane Vermeulen at No. 8.

The degree of care and attention was startling and also made sense. They demolished the Irish scrum in both Tests, with Ox Nche being named Player of the Match.

The Wallabies have not had a proper test of their pack down yet in 2024. Kailea and Alex Hodgman are about to have their baptism of fire as Wallabies.