Donald Trump’s win in the US presidential election has fuelled fears that Vladimir Putin could be on the road to victory in Ukraine – potentially sparking a refugee crisis in Europe and an influx of migrants to the UK.
The president-elect said throughout his election run that he would end the war ‘within 24 hours’, without detailing any plan to achieve this, raising concerns that he could push for a hasty ceasefire.
Trump and his allies have also indicated that his administration would pull financial aid to Ukraine, a scenario which could again force Kyiv to enter into negotiations with the Kremlin.
Concerns have been mounting that Trump could push for a deal which requires Kyiv to give up significant portions of its territory, forcing millions of people to flee west.
Europe is currently hosting around six million Ukrainian refugees, while some 250,000 are in the UK – but these numbers could rise sharply if Kyiv is forced to concede territory to Russia.
In a study released this month, leading think tank the Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) estimates that between 9.4 and 19.1 million Ukrainians could seek refuge abroad should Putin’s forces gain the upper hand.
‘The scale of this migration movement would be unprecedented in Europe since the end of the Second World War,’ the study states.
As Moscow terrorises civilians with drone strikes and regains territory on the battlefield, Ukrainians continue to seek refuge in Europe and the UK, with English councils this week renewing calls for host families to take people in.
Politicians in Germany are believed to have been briefed on what the fallout would look like should Russia achieve victory in Ukraine.
MEP Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann told the Handelsblatt newspaper that a mass exodus from Ukraine to western Europe in the event of Putin claiming victory in Ukraine is ‘realistic’.
Roderich Kiesewetter, a member of the Bundestag and CDU spokesman on security, agreed it was plausible.
‘If the Ukrainian population no longer has any prospects for the future and is threatened with subjugation or complete destruction by Russia, then they will have to flee,’ he said.
Mujtaba Rahman, of risk analysis firm Eurasia Group, said today that Europe ‘needs to get serious about its planning regarding Ukraine in light of Trump’s plans.’
Speaking to MailOnline, he said that while Britain and European nations are unlikely to be represented at the table for potential negotiations between Trump, Putin and Zelensky, they would be acutely affected by their outcome.
‘This is a major concern for European and UK security,’ he said. ‘Any agreement over a ceasefire or something more durable that is put together will have huge implications for large-scale migratory flows across Europe.’
European leaders are waiting anxiously to see what direction the Trump administration will take, while simultaneously upping support to Ukraine as they anticipate a decline in US aid.
‘There remains uncertainty about what Trump will do, with many governments not wanting to make concrete plans until he takes office and it becomes clear,’ Rahman said.
But, the analyst added that he is ‘sceptical’ that enough work is being done in the meantime to prepare for the eventuality of large scale migration from Ukraine.
‘I don’t think that there has been serious planning, governments are not very good at positioning themselves to manage risk. It’s a governance question about planning for worst-case scenarios,’ he said.
When asked whether there could already be increased flows of migration in anticipation of a Trump presidency, he said: ‘That’s obviously a risk’.
Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, triggered a refugee crisis which saw millions flee abroad and displaced inside the country.
Around a quarter of Ukrainians had left their homes by 20 March, with more than half the country’s 𝘤𝘩𝘪𝘭𝘥ren were displaced a month into the war, according to the UN.
Two and a half years into the war, many Ukrainians continue to seek safety abroad. This week, councils in England put out renewed calls for host families.
In Torbay, Devon, where more than 220 people from Ukraine have been taken in since the war began, councillors have said that at least 30 more hosts are needed.
Elmbridge Borough Council in Surrey has also called on residents to volunteer, offering £600 per month ‘thank you’ payments if they take people in.
Ukrainians looking for sponsorship to come to the UK under the government’s programme have been flooding organisations and Facebook groups with requests.
‘The situation here is getting worse every day,’ a young woman wrote on a Facebook page last week as she appealed for help for her and a friend.
‘We hoped for the best, but every day it gets worse. Russian troops are getting closer, the shelling is getting stronger, the number of casualties is growing,’ another based in the east of the country said.
As civilians continue to be forced into underground shelters and the situation on the battlefield remains bleak, Zelensky recently described how he believes the coming months will be ‘decisive’ in the outcome of the war.
‘We don’t have much time. The next few months will be decisive,’ Zelensky said during an address in New York last month.
‘Ahead of us in this war – Russia’s war against Ukraine and all of you because this is Russia’s war against freedom itself – we are short of time to define what the outcome will be. And we must define it.’
While Putin’s forces have endured heavy blows, with around 710,000 troops lost since the beginning of the invasion according to Ukrainian tallies, soldiers have been rapidly replaced and they continue to push forward.
The Russian army has been advancing at its fastest rate since 2022 in recent weeks, with Ukraine’s armed forces chief admitting this month that it is currently facing ‘one of the most powerful’ Russian offensives it has seen.
Moscow has reportedly massed a force of 50,000 soldiers, including around 10,000 troops from North Korea, as it aims to replenish its forces and reclaim the territory taken from it three months ago.
Ukrainian forces, stretched by manpower shortages, have lost some of the ground they captured in an August incursion into Kursk that Zelensky said at the time could serve as a bargaining chip.
A senior Ukrainian official said following the election that the next four to five months will be pivotal, signalling how Trump’s return to the White House is focusing minds in Kyiv on a possible end game in the war.
‘This winter is a critical point … I hope the war is drawing to an end. Right now we will define the positions for both sides on negotiations, the starting positions,’ the official told Reuters, requesting anonymity to discuss sensitive security issues.
In September, Trump’s running mate and now vice president-elect JD Vance offered former US Navy Seal Shawn Ryan an outline of how peace may be brought about in Ukraine under Trump.
‘What it probably looks like is something like the current line of demarcation between Russia and Ukraine becomes like a demilitarised zone, heavily fortified for the Russians don’t invade again,’ Vance told the former Seal on his podcast.
‘Ukraine remains an independent sovereign. Russia gets the guarantee of neutrality from Ukraine.
‘It does not join NATO and some other allied institutions. Germans and other nations have to fund Ukraine’s reconstruction,’ Vance added.
That description of what a Trump-negotiated end to war in Ukraine could look like was subsequently echoed by a Wall Street Journal report that emerged days after the election.
Shortly after his election win was confirmed, Trump and Zelensky spoke on the phone – a conversation characterised by the Ukrainian leader as ‘excellent’.
He admitted the next day however that he was convinced a rapid end to the war would mean Kyiv accepting big concessions.
‘If it’s just fast, it means losses for Ukraine. I just don’t yet understand how this could be in any other way. Maybe we do not know something, do not see,’ Zelenskiy said.
He also criticised talk of a ceasefire without Ukraine first receiving robust security guarantees that would prevent Russia launching an even bigger offensive later on.
In comments apparently aimed at Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who had proposed a ceasefire, he added: ‘It’s a very scary challenge for our citizens: first a ceasefire, then we’ll see. Who are you? Are your 𝘤𝘩𝘪𝘭𝘥ren dying?’