Following four breathtaking rounds of the Rugby Championship, here are five things that we have learnt from All Blacks, Springboks, Los Pumas and Wallabies’ performances.
South Africa are on the cusp of winning the tournament for the first time since 2019 as they depart to Argentina for the penultimate round of action.
Simply put, a victory Rassie Erasmus‘ charges seals the title after the Boks went back-to-back over Australia and New Zealand.
Meanwhile, it hasn’t been plain sailing for the remaining three other teams who are seemingly still finding their feet under new management. The All Blacks have lost three of their four matches under Scott Robertson while the same is true for the Wallabies and Joe Schmidt.
Felipe Contepomi is two from four in his debut Rugby Championship campaign as Los Pumas’ boss clinching famous wins over the All Blacks and Wallabies but losing to both teams as well.
Without further ado, here is what we have learnt so far.
All Blacks aren’t an 80-minute team
Gone are the days, at least for now, of teams running the All Blacks close before being absolutely blown off the park in the final quarter of a match. Fans across the world will know the feeling of hope that maybe, just maybe this will be your team’s chance to knock over the men in black only for the likes of Israel Dagg, Ma’a Nonu, Beauden Barrett and so on to turn up the heat in the latter stages scoring quick tries leading to a double-digit spanking.
That is very much the old generation of All Blacks players and while Robertson undoubtedly wants to take the team back to those days, right now he is failing and frankly, they are not an 80-minute team anymore. This is not a gut feeling or a hot take, it’s a cold hard fact.
In four Rugby Championship matches this year, the All Blacks have not scored a single point in the final 20 minutes of a Test match – even in the 42-10 pasting of Argentina – and overall in 2024, it’s not that much better.
The two Tests against England saw them rack up a grand total of just 14 points which included three penalties and a try. Even against an understrength Fijian outfit, the All Blacks notched up just a single try in the last quarter.
It’s clear the All Blacks don’t have the depth that they once had or don’t trust it yet, and even w
hen Robertson made changes to clearly address the issue it paid no dividends as the Springboks shut them out, denying New Zealand a try for the first time in a Test match since Ireland did the same in 2018.
A week is a long time in international rugby, two weeks is an age, and Robertson has now got the opportunity to work out a fix for their struggles. Is it fitness? Is it selection? Is it depth? He has to find a solution because his team got it largely right for 120 minutes of rugby against the world champions but the other 40 meant they left SA shores with a pair of defeats. It’s been a while since an All Blacks’ side lacked a 𝓀𝒾𝓁𝓁er edge but this one certainly does.
Ruthless Springboks find a way
Where there is a will, the Springboks will find a way. That was plainly evident at the 2023 Rugby World Cup and a trait the South Africans seemingly still have as they have won 19 of their last 21 Test matches. Those two defeats have come by a single scoring margin but so have seven of those victories.
But perhaps what the Springboks have shown as more of this Rugby Championship and is their ability to dig themselves out of a hole and simply find a way to win. In Brisbane against Australia, it was through some smart set-piece innovation paired with their newfound freedom on attack. In torrid conditions in Perth a week later it was a bit more back to traditional strengths in the tight and once the scrum was taken away from them, the lineout went nuclear.
Back in South Africa, it was also a shift to tactical kicking and a bit of a bit of individual brilliance, a ruthless edge close to the line that sealed the win. With the lineout faltering for much of the match in Cape Town, small tweaks made all the difference and the ball certainly bounced in their favour as the All Blacks’ indiscipline left the door ajar and the Boks bashed it down.
This all occurred while the Springboks rotated their squad and dealt with a growing injury list. One thing is for sure about Erasmus’ team, they take a hell of a lot to knock over, proven by the mighty All Blacks being unable to defend a ten-point advantage. Their performances have been far from perfect, riddled with errors and soft moments but in the end, they are finding a way.
Scott Robertson has yet to stamp his mark on the team
It must be somewhat concerning for the onlooking New Zealand public that new head coach Razor Robertson has yet to properly stamp his mark on the team seven games into his tenure. The three defeats aside, it still feels very much like the previous regime of All Blacks taking the field.
This year, Robertson has issued seven Test debuts in 2024 – a far cry from the ludicrous 17 that Schmidt has – and topped up the cap tallies of three players who earned a handful of caps under previous head coach Ian Foster.
Still, only one of the aforementioned 10 have become a regular member of the matchday 23 and somewhat more through requirement than luxury. That is of course scrum-half Cortez Ratima who earned just his second Test start in the Cape Town Test match against the Springboks which was his sixth international appearance.
With Aaron Smith now retired and Cam Roigard injured, Robertson was always going to need a new ‘third’ scrum-half behind TJ Perenara. Finlay Christie looked nailed number two or one at the start of the year but his omission from the squad is the only clear sign of genuine change. Ethan Blackadder had his injury struggles and now seems to have nailed down a role in the team but even he was favoured by the previous regime.
Ardie Savea is clearly still one of the All Blacks best players but is he the best fit at number eight under Robertson? His previous selections as Crusaders’ head coach suggests not. Moving him to the flank would be a clear sign of a change of tack, even if it is a minor tweak. There are still question marks over Rieko Ioane as an outside centre, particularly after impressive cameos on the wing.
Robertson has clearly seen something that he likes in the form of Wallace Sititi, Billy Proctor, Ruben Love, George Bell, and others so why isn’t he given them more of a chance and make those brave calls. It’s high time that Razor stamps his mark on the team and ruffles a few feathers. It was incredibly tight margins in South Africa and the conversation could have been much different had the All Blacks held onto those leads but they simply didn’t. Robertson is learning that is the difference between Super and Test rugby but he must forget what made him successful in the former. He was innovative and brave, often brutal too.
Argentina are the new old France
The old cliche of ‘You never know which France team will pitch up’ is far outdated now and can simply be replaced by Argentina. It’s not a new trend for Los Pumas but so far in 2024, it has been more obvious than ever.
After shocking the All Blacks in round one, they were hammered a week later. Against Australia, it was the bad Los Pumas that pitched up failing to send the legendary Agustin Creevy out on a high as they crashed to a 19-20 defeat. In round four, the sloppy Los Pumas pitched up for the first 30 minutes as they looked to be staring down a hammering defeat but inexplicably bounced back to claim a resounding 40-point win.
The Pumas are not lacking classy players, they are oozing them in fact, but right now their inability to string two rounded performances in back-to-back weeks has been the difference between them being within touching distance of the Springboks, if not leading the table.
Argentina have so many obstacles to overcome in comparison to their Rugby Championship rivals but perhaps Contepomi’s biggest challenge is simply getting consistency. If he achieves this, then Argentina being comfortably one of the top five teams in the world is easily obtainable.
Joe Schmidt has A LOT of work to do
There is no two ways about it, Schmidt has got his hands full with the amount of improvement that the Wallabies require. He was well aware of this when he accepted the challenge of cleaning up Eddie Jones’ mess but one has to think that he did not really understand the true magnitude of the task at hand.
While there is a lengthy injury list to contend with, there are still major holes in the Wallabies game. When Angus Bell and Taniela Tupou are not on the park, the scrum is pretty atrocious. Conceding four tries in ten minutes is simply not acceptable and is that a lack of fitness or just players giving up – neither is admissible. Noah Lolesio is yet to command the number ten jumper and while Ben Donaldson made a good fist of it, he wasn’t overly convincing either.
Strengths one week, have unravelled the next and those inconsistencies can be put down to inexperience but that excuse can only last so long particularly when Schmidt is reluctant to select overseas-based players.
A win over the All Blacks, even just one, will buy an enormous amount of confidence but right now it looks increasingly unlikely. One has to wonder if short-term wins, even in small areas of the game, will result in long-term gains and adding an experienced crop of Wallabies’ abroad could achieve that.