After taking a brunt of the criticism for Boston falling short last May, head coach Joe Mazzulla has guided the Celtics to one of the greatest regular seasons in NBA history.
That’s not hyperbole, either.
Following their road win over New Orleans, the Celtics are on pace for 64 wins. If they reach that mark, they will join a list of 25 teams to hit 64 victories in a full-length season. Sixty percent of those teams went on to raise the Larry O’Brien Trophy.
Boston lapped the Eastern Conference field this year, leaving no doubt who the favorite should be in any seven-game series. Their 11-game lead over the two seed, Milwaukee, is the widest gap in the East standings since 2006. It’s four games larger than the lead Boston had in 2008 after winning 66 games and finishing with the stingiest defense of the modern era.
Many benefits come with locking up the number one seed in your conference. Mazzulla alluded to it last week in Atlanta, mentioning their desire to test out various defensive coverages down the stretch of tight games. While the results won’t always be positive – evidenced by center Kristaps Porzingis giving up three consecutive buckets while switching onto the Hawks’ shifty Dejounte Murray – it’s strictly about the process for a team this great. After all, there’s no trial-and-error without the errors.
It’s hard to blame Mazzulla for experimenting. That’s what these particular moments are for: Managing rest, pacing yourself, and sharpening every tool in the shed. When the postseason arrives, the Celtics don’t want to feel as if they left stones unturned. Barring major injuries, there can’t be any excuses this time around. When you have four weeks to sample and anticipate future problems, it would be coaching malpractice to not take advantage of these games and give your staff enough film against certain schemes.
Through the two-way brilliance of Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, the Celtics have secured homecourt during the East playoffs. They are on the verge of clinching the best record in the league, with Oklahoma City six games behind them in the West.
Still, their record only tells part of the story.
With only eight games remaining, the Celtics’ margin of victory is 11.38, currently fifth all time. They trail only the 2017 Warriors, 1996 Bulls, 1971 Bucks, and 1972 Lakers – all of which captured the NBA title during those respective seasons:
*MOV = Margin of Victory
However, to appropriately contextualize Boston’s performance this season, it’s best to look at their scoring margin in relation to the rest of the league. Adjusting for pace, net rating simply refers to a team’s point differential per 100 possessions on the floor.
With that in mind, Boston is holding the fourth-largest gap in net rating in NBA history. I combed through the last 74 years of data — going back to 1950 when the league only had a handful of teams — to find the most dominant squads that separated themselves from the pack.
Among the top seven teams in net rating difference, all seven won the NBA championship. The Celtics are right in that mix:
In a league where three-point volume is coveted, the Celtics aren’t just winning the math equation. They are dominating the class and essentially tutoring everyone else.
Currently on track to make 1,356 threes, Boston would be at least 150 above second-place, if the averages hold, at the end of 82 games. Only two teams have distanced themselves that far ahead in three-pointers: Mike D’Antoni’s Rockets, who basically eliminated the mid-range from their shot diet, and the 2016 Warriors, recognized as the most destructive regular season team in history with 73 victories.
But there’s a reason why these Celtics are much closer to Golden State than any of those isolation-heavy Houston teams. They are pairing insane volume with top-tier efficiency.
Only six teams in history have attempted at least 30 threes per game and converted at least 39% of them. Increase that to 35 attempts and it’s only two teams. Make it 40 attempts per game at the same percentage and it’s only one: The 2024 Celtics.
“Mazzulla Ball,” the term often used for their proclivity to hunt threes on most possessions, is working like a charm. In fact, the data suggests they should be taking more outside shots.
Boston has generated 1.17 points per spot-up this season, the highest figure in the league by a solid margin. It’s actually the second best efficiency on spot-ups since the NBA launched player-tracking data in 2013. Only the Clippers in 2021 have posted a better mark, which is fascinating because they are the strongest comparison — in terms of playstyle — to this iteration of the Celtics.
The 2021 Clippers operated with veteran superstar wings Kawhi Leonard and Paul George, flanked by elite sharpshooters such as Marcus Morris, Luke Kennard, Reggie Jackson, and Nicolas Batum that season. Behind the “drive, kick, swing” mantra Ty Lue and the Clippers’ staff preached, the Clippers had one of the deadliest three-point shooting seasons of all time and were in good position to reach the Finals before Leonard’s ACL injury.
Meanwhile, the Celtics have prioritized a similar approach with their All-NBA wings. It was critical for Boston to surround Tatum and Brown with marksmen that can punish double teams by slipping into open space or making the extra pass and keeping the defense in constant rotation. A vast majority of the Celtics’ threes have come from Tatum or Brown initiating the offense out of ball-screens, drawing two defenders on the ball, and letting the ball movement create open looks by playing 4-on-3 basketball.
In TD Garden, the Celtics are 32-3 with a home-heavy stretch to close out the season. If they manage to win out and finish with 38 victories, they would become the seventh team since 2000 to lose three or fewer home games.
Boston should welcome any matchup in the East, regardless of the superstar or coach waiting on the other side. If it happens to be Miami, again, through a play-in scenario, so be it. No team this far ahead of the field should be worried about an opponent that can’t solidify a top-six seed. Boston should want the opportunity to exorcise any playoff demon from the past.
The Celtics are building a regular season résumé only rivaled by those on the NBA’s Mount Rushmore. Because of that success, it becomes unavoidable: Failing to reach the Finals would be in the conversation for the biggest letdowns the sport has witnessed.
Yes, while it’s important to maintain perspective and realize 2024 won’t be the last chance for this group, it’s unequivocally their best chance. They can’t let it slip away again.